How far will they go?

I was following with interest the Sens Armyblog poll that asked how far the Senators would make it in the playoffs this year. The result was that 76 percent think the Senators were "playoff contenders" only. They missed out on "playoff sure bet" and "Stanley Cup contender" completely. At least they didn't rate a "batting for the basement", although 10 percent of you thought they did.



And I thought: "Are memories so short?" The best modern day Senators team we've had made it all the way to the Stanley Cup finals in 2006-2007. But has everyone forgotten that at the beginning of that season, fans were calling for Daniel Alfredsson's head? The press was screaming for a trade! A has-been. He'll never be the same. The Senators had a miserable start until they strung together a four-game winning streak in mid-November... sound familiar?

Here's the breakdown from 2006-07 compared to 2009-10:

 October
 06-07    W    L    L    L    W    L    W    W    W    L    L      10 
  2   0   0   0   2   0   2   2   2   0   0  
 09-10   L   W   W   W    L   W   W    L    L   W   L   L    14 
   0   2   2   2    0   2   2    1    1   2   0   0 

 November  TOTAL
 06-07    L    L    L    W     L     L     W    L     W     W     W     W     L    13       23
  0   1   0   2   0   0   2   0    2    2    2    2   0
 09-10  W    L   W    L    L   W    W   W    W     L    W     L     16      30
  2    0    2    0    1    2     2    2     2     0     2     1  

That's right. This year's Sens are on a better pace so far. In 06-07, the Sens went hot in their games to close out the calendar year, winning 10 of 16, and entering January in contention. A measly seven more wins over the seventeen games scheduled in December will see this year's Sens equal that. I'm looking for much more from them. The only thing the Senators really have to worry about is fatigue during such a busy schedule in December.

As to scoring, the Sens were leeching off the Pizza Line in 06-07. That line finished with Heatley's 105 points, then Alfie and Jason Spezza's 87 points. Then scoring fell all the way down to 48 for Mike Fisher. The depth this year is much better, with scoring more equalized across the lines. Yes, the first line is still in the top 5 scorers with new addition Milan Michalek, but Mike Fisher -  a second liner - and  Alexandre Picard (yes, Alexandre Picard), a blueliner, round off the top five. One thing the 06-07 team had was more scoring power with an average 3.5 goal per game, whereas the 09-10 team averages 3 goals per game.

The Senators still have to generate a little more offense, and improve their road record somewhat. But I for one have them in the "playoff sure bet" category... and perhaps a little more.

 

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